Up To 20% Solar Material Price Rising of Chinese PV Market In The Fourth Quarter 2020 - Especially Glass &Encapsulant Film

Up To 20% Solar Material Price Rising of Chinese PV Market In The Fourth Quarter 2020 - Especially Glass &Encapsulant Film

In the fourth quarter of 2020, China will usher in the hottest rush to install photovoltaic power stations, which coincides with the superposition of small upsurges in Vietnam, Europe and the United States. After the price pressure since the third quarter, photovoltaic module enterprises are once again facing the pressure of supply chain procurement. In the rush to install photovoltaic power stations every year, we will rush for modules, inverters, batteries, eva films, backsheet and pv glass. But this year, the protagonist changed to photovoltaic Low Iron glass and encapsulant EVA & POE film.

Before the National Day holiday, the quotations of glass and encapsulant film enterprises in October have been issued one after another, and some component enterprises said, At present, the quotation of 3.2mm glass factory is 35-36 yuan / m2, and the price of 2.0mm is 29 yuan / m2. On this basis, the price of 1090mm wide and above glass is increased by 2 yuan / m2 - the width corresponds to 182 components and 210 five strings of glass. It is worth mentioning that in the quotation in October, the quotation of some small glass factories was slightly lower than that of first-line enterprises.

According to PV InfoLink's price tracking on October 7, the quotation of 3.2mm coated glass has reached 40 yuan / flat, and the average price has fallen to 37 yuan / flat; compared with the price in late September, the price of glass with two thicknesses has increased by 4-6 yuan / m2, up by 16-20%. In addition, the price of packaging film also increased, EVA and Poe increased by 1 yuan / m2, by more than 13.5%.

Compared with the lowest price of 24 yuan / square meter in the second quarter, the price increase of 3.2mm glass has exceeded 45 yuan / square meter. "if all orders can be advanced on schedule, roughly statistics show that the orders of global component enterprises in September reached 19 GW."

According to PV price tracking, the price of 3.2mm glass has been quoted at 35 yuan / m2 in late September, but the average price is still around 30 yuan / m2, but the price in October has basically increased to 35-36 yuan / m2. According to the calculation of some securities companies, the gross profit rate of the first-line 3.2mm photovoltaic glass factory has exceeded 50%.

In fact, most of the reasons for the sharp rise in glass prices are still due to the improvement of terminal demand. On the one hand, the domestic rush loading peak superimposes the demand of some overseas markets, making the fourth quarter the peak season of the whole year. However, the requirements for glass size, sheet-forming and processing technology are becoming higher and higher due to the increase of component power, resulting in the disadvantages of some small-scale production lines such as cost and specification, Entering the transformation and shutdown cycle, further catalyzing the contradiction between supply and demand. At the same time, the price rise of domestic soda ash, the disunity of component size and the flood disaster from July to August have also affected the shutdown of some enterprises.

On the other hand, there is an increase in the proportion of double glass modules. Photovoltaic companies have made statistics on this year's centralized procurement bidding of modules by central enterprises. The proportion of double glass modules is as high as 60%. According to professionals, the demand for photovoltaic glass original pieces (in tons) for the same number of double glass modules is at least 30% higher than that of single glass modules.

In fact, photovoltaic glass and encapsulant film have one thing in common, that is, high industrial concentration.

What is more worrying is that the price rise is only a reflection of the contradiction between supply and demand in the photovoltaic industry chain.

For these component enterprises, the purchasing scale can not be compared with that of large factories, and their discourse power in the supply chain is relatively weak. However, if the orders delivered in the fourth quarter are too concentrated, they will not only face greater pressure on the price, but also face higher risk problems in delivery and even default.

This year's supply chain management capability will accelerate the reshuffle of the module industry. "Most photovoltaic enterprises do not have the awareness of supply chain management. When the industry demand was low in the second quarter, it was the glass factories who asked the component enterprises to sign the long-term agreement. Now they are all in reverse."

This year, the photovoltaic industry has experienced ups and downs like a roller coaster. First, the shortage of supply as a fuse for the explosion of polysilicon plants has driven the price of the entire industry chain to rise. After the upstream stability of components, the auxiliary materials such as glass, excapsulant film and silver paste continue to affect the delivery of component orders. In fact, the contradiction between supply and demand is not only reflected in the price, but also the supply of glass and encapsulant film in the fourth quarter with intensive order delivery, especially the second and third line component enterprises will face great pressure of supply chain management.

Although the expansion of glass and excapsulat film(EVA &POE) enterprises is in full swing, industry insiders believe that after the production capacity of glass is put into production, there is still a long climbing process between production and production capacity, and the supply of glass before Jun 30th in 2021 is still not optimistic. However, some large glass factories have revealed that the scale of production of large first-line factories next year will be considerable, which will alleviate the current predicament to a certain extent.